| Author |
 Topic  |
|
KD teammate
Hors Categorie
Denmark
5683 Posts |
 Posted - 29/05/2009 : 03:29:32
|
quote:
Originally posted by OctaBech
Always in the middle of a grand tour, why is the timing so bad?
Oh well, I (chose to) believe that Menchov is clean because his performance...
Indeed you can question the timing. I think the obvious answer to why the press has started to highlight the story now, has something to do with the fact that it simply became more sensational news, now when Menchov is about to win the Giro. The second part of the truth is, that the "Austrian Blood Doping scandal" also recently reappeared to the Publics attention in April, when the Austrian police started to arrest some of the leading people in the doping network. In this topic I have previously covered the case very closely:
1.part (Jan.2008) about the investigation: http://forum.teamcsc-saxobank.com/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=5013&whichpage=5
2.part (March 2008) naming the athletes alleged to be implicated: http://forum.teamcsc-saxobank.com/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=5013&whichpage=7
3.part (April 2009) with findings of the police and Kohl's admission: http://forum.teamcsc-saxobank.com/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=5013&whichpage=11
So actualy March 2008 was the first time Dennis Menchov (and the main part of the Rabobank team) was named as being clients of the Austrian Doping network back in 2006. As most of you are aware, such investigations however can take a lot of time to finalice. First problem for the police (after the doping network was discovered in Feb.2006, during the winter Olympics in Torino) was that they couldnt trace up the needed evidense to convict the implicated persons of their crime. The police needed some athletes to confess about the doping network and help to dismantle the network. Now when some of the athletes finaly started to collaborate, the case has started to roll.
Like I have stated some days ago in a parallel topic, I find it most likely that the entire Rabobank team was systematicly doped in 2006, just like the entire T-mobile had their systematic doping in Freiburg. To me the Operation Puerto in May 2006 was an eye-opener about how wide spread the doping problem still was in Cycling. When we also add our knowledge from the Lausanne Laboratorium that 50% of the riders still posted suspectful blood profiles (indicating a blood manipulation) in 1999-2006, then I think its safe to expect that 80%-90% of the best riders were doped in that time frame.
As I have stated many times in my earlier posts, we can find some strong indications showing that the first change in regards of doping matters, happened to the Cycling sport after the Festina scandal in 1998. Unfortunately the change was however to a large degree limited only to cover the French teams, while the rest of the peleton could be divided into a large group who still performed systematic doping, and a small group where the teams failed to implement strict enough antidoping measures (to prevent their top riders from making some doping expiriments on their own). So far it appears that Team CSC belonged to the group of teams who lacked to implement strong enough antidoping measures, while teams like Kelme, Liberty Seguros, T-mobile and Rabobank had systematic doping in 2006.
The first real big change appearing in Cycling only happened after 2006. This change has largely been lead by CSC-SaxoBank, Garmin and Columbia, and the introduction of the biological passport in 2008 was emphasizing this new direction for the sport. Subsequently the amount of suspectful blood profiles from the Tour samples, reported by the Lausanne Laboratorium and AFLD, then decreased to only 25% in 2007 and just 10% in 2008, and this supports the theory that a real change indeed has appeared!
My point is, that we actualy have no reason to be surprised, when we find out through police investigations or rider admissions, that certain top riders also were doped in 1999-2006. In fact we have good reasons to expect, that 90% of the top riders were still doped in that time frame. Simply put, when the total test numbers reveal 50% of the riders showing signs of blood manipulation, then its likely to expect a distribution of 10% doped in the Gruppetto, 50% doped at the mid level and 90% doped of the top riders.
Just to throw in a short example. When I look at the Tour de France result from 2005, I actualy suspect that all names in top10 was blood doped. And when looking at the Tour de France result from 2004, I only find one name in top10, that I suspect was competing clean. His name is Carlos Sastre. But the point to launch a theory of who is doped in 2009, based solely on "relative performance" compared to 2004, is remote. As we have discussed in earlier topics the GC riders normaly continue to improve and develop their fysics until the age of 27, and other tactical considerations can also interfere. So I think we shall refrain to build theories about who is doped today, based on the results we witnessed in 1999-2006.
One last thing I also cant help to highlight, is the fact that we cant know from the racing results alone, who is doped and who is not. Last year we discussed the fact, that athletes become 7% faster on a mountain if they manipulate their blood values with EPO/blood doping. But this doesnt tell us who is dirty or not. Try in example to imagine that we are performing blood doping at Kasper Klostergaard, then we would most likely see a nice improvement of his performance so he wouldnt end last in the GC, but instead probably end the mountain stages in the "domestique" peleton around nr.50 (but he will maximum become as good as a clean Lars Bak). Looking at our clean rider Lars Bak, he would probably respond to our theoretical blood doping experiment, by improving his Giro result from nr.20 to nr.10 (but not beyond).
Likewise we can also speculate that a clean Menchov in 2009 would only finish the Giro as nr.10, and not be able to win it. Or perhaps speculate that Menchov is clean today, and if he was doped now (like he presumably was in 2005 when he achieved his 2nd place in the Vuelta, where 90% of the other top riders also were doped), he would then be outclassing all his competitors with more than 10 minutes today in the Giro! In that way, the actual results of Menchov in the Giro 2009, doesnt reveal anything about it at all!
So my point just goes, that its basicly impossible to tell from the race results alone, who is doped and who is not. Instead of basing our oppinions/beliefs on the results, we should pay more attention to the good/bad circumstances surrounding the riders and teams. 
¤ Winner of the Golden League Fantasy Game 2008 |
Edited by - KD teammate on 29/05/2009 04:33:40 |
 |
|
|
CrossRacer
National Champion
USA
322 Posts |
Posted - 29/05/2009 : 04:29:28
|
quote:
Originally posted by OctaBech
Always in the middle of a grand tour, why is the timing so bad?
A lot of times this happens around the second rest day in a grand tour because the doping results are arriving from the pre-tour drug tests and first week of racing. On the first rest day the media is usually focused on the race and the riders. On the second rest day, the GC picture is a little more settled, so the media needs to make some big news to report. In this case with the Giro, as KD mentioned, Menchov is leading, and there haven't been any big Giro drug test results leaked to the press, so they are focusing on the Menchov accusations. |
Edited by - CrossRacer on 29/05/2009 04:30:19 |
|
|
|
OctaBech
National Champion
Denmark
898 Posts |
Posted - 29/05/2009 : 19:16:48
|
quote:
Originally posted by KD teammate
So my point just goes, that its basicly impossible to tell from the race results alone, who is doped and who is not. Instead of basing our oppinions/beliefs on the results, we should pay more attention to the good/bad circumstances surrounding the riders and teams.
¤ Winner of the Golden League Fantasy Game 2008
I fully agree that looking on the race rankings or stage results isolated is rather pointless.
But I'm not too sure that an undoped Menchov could just be a top 20 rider.
It's mainly because of his riding style, in a iTT he's only around the level of a rested in top shape Voigt even though he has a better position on the bike.
And talking about the position on the bike, I'm having a hard time believing that a doped Kohl would have had such an easy time staying up with Menchov and Evans, had these riders also been doped. His riding style is.. was even uglier than his face and a waste of energy.
CERA did a big difference, not only adding a 7% better performance but also gave the riders a much faster recovery, which I think we should include in the debate.
Because Sastre and Menchov have days where they perform better and days where they are less good(Menchov topping in the middle of a Tour and Sastre topping at the end of a Tour), they aren't topping the entire tour.
Evans never even recovered in last year's Tour before the final iTT.
Heh, it would seem I've switched over to talking about how little faith I have in Kohl.  But the point stays, A doped Menchov should outperform a doped Kohl any day.
quote:
Originally posted by CrossRacer
quote:
Originally posted by OctaBech
Always in the middle of a grand tour, why is the timing so bad?
A lot of times this happens around the second rest day in a grand tour because the doping results are arriving from the pre-tour drug tests and first week of racing. On the first rest day the media is usually focused on the race and the riders. On the second rest day, the GC picture is a little more settled, so the media needs to make some big news to report. In this case with the Giro, as KD mentioned, Menchov is leading, and there haven't been any big Giro drug test results leaked to the press, so they are focusing on the Menchov accusations.
Yeah it certainly looks like that is the pattern. Would have been preferable if the investigative journalism happened before the rider gained too much fame or had an important stage the next day.
- Professional Couchrider |
|
|
|
Labomb
National Champion
Denmark
828 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2009 : 20:24:39
|
Now it seems like team Katyusha has had their second rider acused for the using of EPO during this season. This time it as spanish rider Antonio Colom who has been caught in a out-of-competition test.
It seems to be the biological passport which has played a major role in getting him caught, while suspicious values have been detected during the testing through the season, and therefore the doping agencyes have put an extra eye on him, testing him more!
LaBoMB
Back again. |
|
|
|
CrossRacer
National Champion
USA
322 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2009 : 21:56:42
|
| Ouch. A second rider caught right before TdF. And Katyusha recently had their riders sign an anti-doping agreement, with a penalty of paying a huge fine if the rider had a positive. Three riders refused to sign it, but Colom was not one of them. |
Edited by - CrossRacer on 09/06/2009 21:57:34 |
|
|
|
Totally
National Champion
Denmark
660 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2009 : 22:08:10
|
Well... I'm normally not the kind of guy, but I do remember some time ago saying I had always been correct in my assumptions when it came to doping and I do think I among other riders such as Contador mentioned Colom, so I'm gonna say it anyway: I told you so...
Former profile "Team CSC Fan" - don't be a hater |
|
|
|
Paul@CSC
World Champion
United Kingdom
1416 Posts |
|
|
KD teammate
Hors Categorie
Denmark
5683 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2009 : 22:54:53
|
quote:
Originally posted by CrossRacer
Ouch. A second rider caught right before TdF. And Katyusha recently had their riders sign an anti-doping agreement, with a penalty of paying a huge fine if the rider had a positive. Three riders refused to sign it, but Colom was not one of them.
I dont know how to feel about the new "5 year sallery pay back" contracts launched by Kathusha. At one hand its a great deterrent to prevent the use of doping, but on the other hand, what will now happen to the riders getting caught? Let's say for instance that Valverde is suspended 2 years and signed such an agreement, should he then repay his team 5 * €2.5mio/year = €12.5mio? Is this realistic? Or do the new Katusha contracts only ask the riders to repay 5 years of minimum wage, which in that case would be 5* €0.033mio/year = €0.165mio? In that case its a far more realistic amount.
But then what about the additional repayment of 1 years sallery to UCI for all those riders who signed the ethical contracts last year? Isnt this sanction enough punishment, together with the new rules that riders risk 4 years suspension in doping cases with aggrevated circumstances? The reason for me to ask those questions, is only due to the fact that I think we should be careful to make too high economic demands towards the riders getting caught. If a first year pro is caught, and demanded to pay 5 years sallery he will go bankrupt, and if returning 2 years after his suspension, he will most likely feel pressured to start doping again, to reach a high enough level to be able to earn enough money to repay his depths.
Eventhough I can understand the intention launched by the Katusha team, I just think a repayment of 1 years sallery should be enough.
In that way the rider will have a more realistic chance to pay. But of course it makes a huge difference whether or not its 5 years "minimum pay" (which perhaps could be acceptable), or "the sallery the rider earned through his last 5 years as a rider" (meaning bankruptcy of the rider). Just as in the UCI contracts, the money punishment should also only be launched, in those cases where the rider refuse to collaborate with the authoraties to reveal his doping supplier.
Another question in this discussion could also be, whether or not its appropriate that each team launch their own punishment rules? Istnt it more fair and appropriate to let UCI handle all the punishment, so all riders are treated on equal terms? And how can we be sure that a team claiming to ask for payments of caught riders, also will pursue this request after the rider has been caught? Is the signed antidoping contracts written good enough to be legally binding for the rider, or is it just a free PR stunt to sign that paper?
¤ Winner of the Golden League Fantasy Game 2008 |
Edited by - KD teammate on 09/06/2009 22:59:57 |
|
|
|
SarahforSaxoBank
National Champion
Denmark
631 Posts |
Posted - 10/06/2009 : 00:33:54
|
Hmm. I don't know. you could say, if you don't want to go bankrupt, then don't use DOPING! :-D :-D
Btw. mcewen said that Colom in fact also didn't sign the contract, contrarary to what was previosly stated. So no additional punishment for him, so to speak. |
|
|
|
SarahforSaxoBank
National Champion
Denmark
631 Posts |
Posted - 10/06/2009 : 00:35:00
|
| :-D :-D |
|
|
|
CSC ATLANTA
Hors Categorie
USA
2185 Posts |
Posted - 10/06/2009 : 03:37:22
|
In all likelihood, except for maybe the top 5 riders, very few pro level riders could ever repay a five year salary fine. They just don't earn the huge salaries found in other sports.
The real motive of this would be to force those out of the sport and make the team look like their taking a stronger anti-doping position. I think it's all a PR strategy.
We can only guess and speculate how much cleaner, if at all, the peloton is now vs pre OP or Festina. But it does seem that the focus of blame and responsibility has been shifted to the individual riders and away from the teams.
I am not sure this is correct. As sophisticated as training and coaching measures have become we do still need to question how much the teams DS', coaches and doctors really do know and what obligation they have to know.
I would like the UCI to consider sanctions or fines against Teams if they have more than two positive riders in one season. (we can debate the appropriate number, but you get the idea) So far the ASO has been the only organization to hold teams responsible.
|
|
|
|
Lemond
National Champion
Denmark
425 Posts |
Posted - 10/06/2009 : 13:34:27
|
Omg will this Kohl guy ever shut up. So freaking annoying to hear him trying to justify his own mistake by taking shots at everybody. Sure Kohl its just on big conspiracy designed to take you down. These random accusations dosnt do anybody any good - name names or shut up please!
As for this 5 year salary pay back thing that is just way over the top in my opinion. Riders caught suffer enough in my opinion and i dont think that riders really think that much about the consequenses anyway. After all you would assume that they think the chance of getting caught is so small that its worth it to cheat. I think the way to go is to continue taking measures to increase the likelyhood that riders cheating will get caught - like the introduction of the bloodpass and the option of keeping the samples for a number of years in order to test them whenever are new testing method is discovered.
Too me this looks more like a way for Katusha to distance themselves from this. Maybe they should consider screening the riders a little better before making new signings. |
Edited by - Lemond on 10/06/2009 13:42:39 |
|
|
|
csc-austria
National Champion
Austria
603 Posts |
Posted - 10/06/2009 : 14:36:59
|
quote:
Originally posted by Lemond
Omg will this Kohl guy ever shut up. So freaking annoying to hear him trying to justify his own mistake by taking shots at everybody. Sure Kohl its just on big conspiracy designed to take you down. These random accusations dosnt do anybody any good - name names or shut up please!
That's also exactely my point of view! |
|
|
|
CrossRacer
National Champion
USA
322 Posts |
Posted - 10/06/2009 : 22:27:48
|
quote:
Originally posted by SarahforSaxoBank
Btw. mcewen said that Colom in fact also didn't sign the contract, contrarary to what was previosly stated. So no additional punishment for him, so to speak.
http://velonews.com/article/92918/three-top-katusha-riders-oppose-new-team-rules
"The trio who are refusing to sign contracts including the new conditions are Australian Robbie McEwen and Belgians Gert Steegmans and Kenny De Haes, Katusha's sporting director Serge Parsani told Agence France Presse."
Colom wasn't included in the initial report of riders who had not signed, and wasn't mentioned until McEwen's statement that came out later.
Also, does anyone know if there is still a requirement for a team to hold themselves to a racing ban for having multiple positives during the year? |
Edited by - CrossRacer on 10/06/2009 22:48:35 |
|
|
|
KD teammate
Hors Categorie
Denmark
5683 Posts |
Posted - 11/06/2009 : 08:35:55
|
quote:
Originally posted by CrossRacer
Also, does anyone know if there is still a requirement for a team to hold themselves to a racing ban for having multiple positives during the year?
Since we have a topic dedicated to ellaborate on the ethical rules and autosuspensions, I moved my reply to your question to that topic:
http://forum.teamcsc-saxobank.com/topic.asp?whichpage=2&TOPIC_ID=6513#56402
quote:
Originally posted by CrossRacer
Colom wasn't included in the initial report of riders who had not signed, and wasn't mentioned until McEwen's statement that came out later.
Currently I share the feeling posted by CSC Atlanta, that the ethical contract presented by Katusha perhaps mostly shall be seen as a PR tool. In regards of the ethical contracts that UCI asked the riders to sign in 2007 (where riders should pay 1 years sallery if getting caught), it was pointed out by McQuid himself, that the contracts according to lawyers, wouldnt be legally binding in the court. But whether or not the same legal circumstances apply, when the contracts instead are written by the team, instead of UCI, will of course be interesting to learn. Perhaps thats why McEwen, Steegmans and Dehaes is carefull not to sign, before checking with their lawyer?
In regards of Colom its interesting to note his recent statement, that some anonymous person called him already after Paris-Nice and warned him, that he was soon to get caught. He recieved the same warning after Volta Catalunya, and then rumours started to circulate in Spain during the Giro, that now a lab indeed had tested Colom positive. Under those circumstances, where Colom knew he was close to get caught, it doesnt make sence he should have signed a new binding antidoping contract presented by Katusha. Instead its much more likely, that Katusha heard the same rumours in early spring about the problems of Colom, and then started to prepare an ethical contract they could launch as a PR tool, in case Colom was caught.
¤ Winner of the Golden League Fantasy Game 2008 |
|
|
|
Topic |
|
|
|
Doping affairs in Cycling since 1980
